U S. inflation rises for the first time in a year to 3.2% rate, but underlying measures remain mild

Forecasters at Pantheon Macroeconomics and Capital Economics believe softer rent increases and a slowing economy and job market in coming months will lead the Fed to stand pat the rest of the year. As a result, Barclays expects the Fed to raise its key interest rate once more this year, by a quarter percentage point, after lifting it by 5.25 points in 16 months. That marks its most aggressive inflation-fighting campaign in four decades. After a series of data releases in recent weeks that hinted at a gently slowing economy, concerns remain over the potential for inflation to re-accelerate, particularly from higher energy costs. Grocery prices rose 0.2 percent in August, down from 0.3 percent in July. The cost of eating at restaurants also picked up 0.3 percent over the month, an uptick from 0.2 percent in July.

Gas prices were “the largest contributor” to the overall pop in inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, accounting for over half of the overall increase in August. Markets are little changed after the fresh inflation numbers came in broadly in line with expectations. The S&P 500 is set to open roughly flat, while expectations have solidified for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady when it meets next week. But what your household spends money on almost certainly differs from the typical U.S. household’s.

Pork prices rose 2.2 percent, and chicken prices increased 1.3 percent in August. Overall food prices climbed 0.2 percent in August from the prior month, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was the same rate at which food prices increased from June to July.

The latest inflation report is reinforcing hopes about a soft landing in the economy — or when inflation eases without sparking a downturn. Making sure your investments are set up to safeguard against inflation is important and there are many factors to consider. Seeking a second opinion from a financial advisor can be useful to ensure that you’re on the right track and have prepared your portfolio to weather all seasons of varying economic environments. NerdWallet, Inc. is an independent publisher and comparison service, not an investment advisor. Its articles, interactive tools and other content are provided to you for free, as self-help tools and for informational purposes only.

How is inflation measured?

More recently, the CPI inflation rate in the US trended close to the targeted 2% mark in most years during the last decade. The 1970s was a decade of raging inflation in the US brought on by an energy supply shock following the start of the Arab-Israeli War in 1973. Other factors also included food supply shocks and US President Richard Nixon’s economic policies, which included the end to dollar convertibility to gold, or the gold standard. The Fed chair, Jerome Powell, said last month that officials were aware of the precarity, saying they will “proceed carefully” as they decide what to do with interest rates. Powell has said the overall decline in inflation has been a “welcome development”, but it still remains high.

The Fed, economists and investors, though, pay particular attention to the core inflation figures for signs of where inflationary pressures might be headed. Focusing on more recent months shows price hikes continuing to moderate. In fact, over the last three months, prices have climbed at an annual rate of just under 2%. There are other metrics that tell us about the inflation story, such as the personal consumption expenditures price index. Bureau of Economic Analysis, which also prices a different basket of goods and services from the CPI basket. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.2%, in line with June’s increase,  according to July’s uptick, however, was sharper before the figures were rounded.

Nevertheless, the price of diesel is roughly 50 cents lower than a year ago. The national average price for regular gasoline on Wednesday was $3.85 a gallon, about 14 cents higher than a year ago, and a nickel more than last week, according to the AAA motor club. But on a month-to-month basis, rent increases actually sped up slightly in August, rising 0.5 percent, from 0.4 percent in July.

A low, steady or predictable level of inflation is considered positive for an economy. Inflation remains a heated political and pocketbook issue for politicians and voters. In response to high gas prices,  Georgia’s governor on Tuesday declared a state of emergency, temporarily suspending the state’s excise tax on motor and locomotive fuel to help struggling residents.

Use the inflation calculator form as a starting point for answering questions that you have about the historical inflation rate in the U.S. You can also learn about inflation for the UK, Canada, Australia, and Europe. Use the form on this page to look up inflation for any year (this year’s inflation is estimated based on latest monthly CPI data). Since the introduction of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in 1913, the highest inflation rate observed in the United States was 20.49% in 1917.

What is the current inflation rate in the US?

It’s measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) each month. There is another measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which is reported by the Census Bureau. Being able to combat, or at least keep up with, inflation and sustain the purchasing power of your money is one of the main reasons to invest your money.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) looks at the average change in prices for particular products and services during a period of time, according to the Bureau of Labor Services. Still, he said he did not expect to see a big surge in food prices, barring any major supply shocks, and food inflation has slowed notably compared to last year. Prices for fruits and vegetables declined 0.2 percent in August, a slight cooling from a 0.4 percent increase in July. A gauge of costs for meats, poultry, fish and eggs rose 0.8 percent in August, up from the month before, when prices climbed 0.5 percent.

Even with inflation slightly up, the Fed is on track to keep interest rates the same at their next board meeting on 20 September. Economists say the Fed has had a pause planned for the meeting for a while as many officials say the economy has yet to feel the full effects of interest rates, which are at a 22-year high at 5.25% to 5.5%. Even if the Fed doesn’t raise rates higher, they’re likely to remain elevated for an extended period. But nothing’s certain and additional economic data will determine the Fed’s next action. The Fed doesn’t meet until late September and there are still areas of concern, including higher oil prices which are driving up prices at the gas pump. Even before Thursday’s inflation news, markets were betting the Fed would leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting after raising rates aggressively since last year.

Will inflation go down?

The cost of crude has risen more than 7 percent over the past month and about 12 percent since the beginning of the year. Oil prices have risen mostly as a result of cuts in Saudi production in recent months. The graph above shows the annual inflation rates in the US for the previous 10 calendar years, from 2013. To calculate cumulative rates between two different periods, you can use the United States Inflation Calculator.

As the economy expands past a 3% rate of growth, it can create an asset bubble. That’s when the market value of an asset increases more rapidly than its underlying real value. When researching the US inflation rate outlook, it’s important to remember that analysts’ forecasts can be wrong. We encourage you to always conduct your due diligence by reading the latest news, conducting technical and fundamental analyses, and studying a wide range of economic commentary.

Deflation

Elsewhere, Knightley’s US inflation predictions saw inflation rates at 2% by the end of 2023. The US central bank set an inflation target of 2% “over the longer run”, as measured by the annual change in the PCE index. The Fed monitors different price indices to evaluate changes in inflation. Among these indices, the Fed said the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index was the “most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s mandate for maximum employment and price stability”. Thursday’s price data will be among the key barometers the Fed will weigh in deciding whether to continue raising interest rates. In its drive to tame inflation, the Fed has raised its benchmark rate 11 times since March 2022 to a 22-year high.

• That’s when businesses are producing, consumers are spending, and supply and demand are as close to equilibrium as possible.
• Consumer prices rose 3.7 percent in the year through August, marking another month of accelerating inflation.
• Meanwhile, some gold owners grew richer as the price of gold soared to new highs.
• Investors use a diversified portfolio with a variety of asset types to offset inflation and ensure that the overall growth of their portfolio outpaces it.
• The difference in the inflation rates owes to differences in the consumption baskets of older adults (CPI-E) and the general population (CPI-U).

What you may not have stopped to think about, though, is that the CPI is a blunt instrument because it aims to reflect the experiences of consumers at large. To calculate the CPI, the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses a consumption basket of goods and services, with each item weighted by how much of the typical U.S. household’s budget it represents. Categories best mortgage lender like housing receive the biggest weighting in the CPI calculation, while recreation and apparel get smaller weightings. If you’ve been paying even passing attention to inflation—and it has been hard to ignore—you know that the latest inflation readings have been ugly. Through August 2022, the Consumer Price Index notched an 8.3% increase from the year prior.

Americans who have been to the grocery store lately or started their holiday shopping may have noticed that consumer prices have spiked. The annual rate of inflation in the United States hit 6.2% in October 2021, the highest in more than three decades, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Other inflation metrics also have shown significant increases in recent months, though not to the same extent as the CPI. Last week, for example, the Labor Department reported that average hourly wages rose 4.4 percent in July from a year earlier, more than expected. To cover their higher labor costs, companies have typically raised their prices, thereby fueling inflation.

The inflation rate indicates the overall health of a country’s economy. It is used by central banks, economists, and governments to determine what action needs to be taken, if any, to stabilize the economy and keep it healthy. According to the report, food items were the biggest contributors to monthly price increases in November, while the energy basket posted its fourth monthly price decline in five. The US central bank was not expected to ease its restrictive policy anytime soon, as of late 2022. Inflation data will be a market-moving economic metric in 2023 and continue to attract close scrutiny from policymakers and investors. Another factor working against continued declines in year-over-year inflation rates is that prices soared in the first half of last year before slowing in the second half.

If you’ve had to purchase a car over the past year or even if you just frequently fill up the tank, you’ve seen a substantial increase in your outlays to get around. City dwellers who bike or walk, on the other hand, have been much less affected by rising transport prices. The index for gasoline was the largest
contributor to the monthly all items increase,
accounting for over half of
the increase. Also contributing to the August monthly
increase was continued advancementin the shelter index, which rose for the 40th
consecutive month.

• It lowers the fed funds rate range to boost economic growth to prevent or end a recession.
• Prices at the pump remain well below their peak in June 2022, when a gallon of gas cost more than $5 on average.
• The positive news sparked a brief rally in the US equity markets (SP500) and a fall in US dollar rates (DXY) on expectations of slower rate hikes by the US Fed.
• NerdWallet, Inc. does not offer advisory or brokerage services, nor does it recommend or advise investors to buy or sell particular stocks, securities or other investments.
• To cover their higher labor costs, companies have typically raised their prices, thereby fueling inflation.

Some investors attempt to protect their portfolios from inflation by strategically allocating their funds. Gold, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), and stocks are among the most common inflation hedges. But these assets don’t always succeed in protecting investors, and investments can lose value at a faster rate than inflation. However, inflation means your money will probably buy less over time.

The U.S. Economy Today

Economists expect rent increases to pull back, based on new leases, but that shift has been slow to filter through to existing leases. Gas was a big contributor, but looking past that to https://1investing.in/ less volatile measures, things like airline fares, motor vehicle insurance and car repairs were all factors. The takeaway is that the path toward cooler inflation remains a bumpy one.

Although wage growth recently started outpacing inflation, many Americans say they aren’t feeling the benefits. Gas prices jumped by about 25 cents a gallon nationally from mid-July to mid-August, topping out around $3.87 per gallon before receding slightly into September. The national average price of gas was $3.85 per gallon on Wednesday, according to AAA. The big headache of President Biden’s Summer of 2022 — high gasoline prices — may once again bedevil him this week. Egg prices continued to fall after an outbreak of bird flu and other factors led to a spike in prices earlier this year.

Meanwhile, housing is also a higher share of older adults’ consumption baskets than it is for the general CPI. That seems counterintuitive, in that many older adults live in paid-off homes. But the statistic relates to how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates housing costs. Given that many older adults own their homes rather than rent them, it’s possible—even likely—that CPI-E overstates housing-related costs for many older consumers. Life stage tends to play a role in the inflation experience, too, as reflected in a statistic called CPI-E, the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly, which captures the spending of adults who are age 62 and above. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been calculating CPI-E since 1982, so there are now almost 40 years’ worth of data.

“Today’s report provides more evidence that core inflation is trending down toward pre-pandemic levels at a time when employment remains strong,” Mr. Biden said in a statement. The Federal Reserve has a target annual inflation rate of 2%, and it uses monetary policy to keep inflation in check and stabilize the economy when inflation rises above that benchmark. The inflation figure the government reported Thursday showed that consumer prices increased 3.2% percent from a year earlier.